Monte Carlo Analysis
When you sit down with a financial professional to update your retirement plan, you may encounter a Monte Carlo simulation, a financial forecasting method that has become more prevalent in the last few years. Monte Carlo financial simulations project and illustrate the probability that you'll reach your financial goals, and might help you make a more informed investment decision.
Estimating investment returns
All financial forecasts must account for variables like inflation rates and investment returns. The catch is that these variables have to be estimated, and the estimate used is key to a forecast's results. For example, a forecast that assumes stocks will earn an average of 4% each year for the next 20 years will differ significantly from a forecast that assumes an average annual return of 8% over the same period.
Estimating investment returns is particularly difficult. For example, the volatility of stock returns can make short-term projections almost meaningless. Multiple factors influence investment returns, including events such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks, which are unpredictable. So, it's important to understand how different forecasting methods handle uncertainty.